5/10/24
If you’ve given the Dodgers even the slightest bit of attention over the past few weeks, maybe you’ve heard of this bright, rookie sensation from Havana, Cuba. At the beginning of the 2024 MLB season, not many baseball fans, and even Dodger fans alike had Andy Pages being a realistic candidate in the NL Rookie of the Year race on their 2024 bingo cards. After all, Pages started the season in AAA after having himself an excellent spring, going 8-for-17 with 2 homers and 2 walks, reaching base safely in more than half of his at-bats. This impressive showing led to many Dodger fans calling for his promotion immediately to begin the season, but this was much easier said than done.
The Dodgers Opening Day Roster was set when it came to position players at the beginning of Spring Training. Heck, you could argue it was set way back in January, aside from what was essentially the Manuel Margot for Kiké Hernandez swap, when Hernandez re-signed with LA at the end of February. Hernandez was the obvious final position player on the projected Opening Day Roster at that point. There was such an abundance of major league level hitters going into 2024 that the Dodgers even traded away Michael Busch, who is blossoming into the hitter Dodger fans expected him to be, in a deal (with RP Yency Almonte) for two prospects.
Even with Pages’s strong spring, he was seemingly not going to make the Opening Day Rosters over guys such as James Outman, Chris Taylor, Jason Heyward, etc.. Maybe the fans that called for his instant promotion just glossed over the fullness of the roster and only paid attention to the 8-for-17, which was still impressive by the way (I myself was sharing his hits with others at nauseam). Though calling him up at the time did not make much sense. Heyward, Outman, Taylor, and Hernandez all earned their respective shares of playing time in the outfield, and newcomer Teoscar Hernandez, was signed to play every day in that same outfield. Having him begin the season in AAA was the obvious option here.
Pages followed up his spring with a scorching hot start to the AAA season. Through his first 15 games he put up a 178 wRC+ (producing offense for his team 78% better than league average) and a .484 wOBA (better counterpart to On-Base Percentage). His slash line (AVG./OBP./SLG.) was at an impressive .371/.452/.694, and he had clubbed 5 HR’s to that point. He was flat out crushing the baseball, which only grew the desire of fans to see him in the big leagues. I, like many other Dodger fans who have kept up with him through his time in the Dodgers minor league system, felt he should only get the call if he were going to play every day, because platooning him (or really any rookie in that position) would be a disservice to him and his development. He was getting constant reps in AAA and hitting the cover off of the ball, but cutting his AB’s in half would surely mess with his rhythm and was a recipe to cool his bat down.
Within the first week of the season, Jason Heyward went down with back soreness, an injury that required him to be placed on the 15-Day IL. Pages was not immediately called up, and the Dodgers acquired OF Taylor Trammell off waivers, a once top prospect who really never came close to the ceiling he was projected through his time climbing the minor league ranks. It definitely did not seem like it was time to bring up Pages because he would not likely see full time AB’s, considering Tramell and the aforementioned group of Taylor, E. Hernandez, and Outman were still taking up a lot of those AB’s. A sizable segment of fans did not care and still called for him to be promoted, but there was just no pathway to him getting the sufficient amount of playing time he needed. It all seemed like a perfect storm though, because Tramell would go hitless in 6 AB’s with 3 K’s and the trio of OF’s not named Teoscar Hernandez were mightily struggling, leaving the Dodgers bottom of the order in desperate need of a spark. To top it all off, Heyward would look to be out for an extended period of time with no return date in sight with his back injury.
On April 16th, 2024, Havana Cuba arrived once again and Andy Pages made his Dodgers debut. Not only were Dodger fans excited for him to get the call, but also were elated to hear Manager Dave Roberts indicate that he would indeed be playing everyday while he was up with the team. This was the best case scenario Dodger fans could have hoped for because the 7-8-9 hitters accounted for a collective bottom 3 OPS in MLB, and their hottest hitter in AAA was taking over one of those spots and AB’s from one of the 4-5 struggling hitters in the lineup. Much of the Dodger fan base definitely expected Pages to provide that missing spark and much needed consistency in the bottom of the order, but I do not think many would have predicted he would interject himself as a prime candidate in the NL Rookie of the Year race like he currently has.
Many Dodger fans can tell you how dreadful it was watching the bottom of the Dodger order before Pages’s arrival; to many, it seemed like three free outs for the opposition. But it really seems like he was not just a contributor to the solution, but a catalyst as well seeing how the bottom of the order turned things around since his arrival. He seems to have found his starting spot as the starting 6th or 7th hitter now, due to his hot bat since April 16th, and only figures to stay.
Since his arrival onto the scene, he has already accumulated 0.8 fWAR in only 20 games. That 0.8 fWAR ties him for 3rd on the Dodgers in that span, trailing only the 2 biggest superstars in baseball, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, and puts him on a 6.0 pace according to Fangraphs (near MVP-level production) over 162 games. His value is being felt right away, heavily due in part to the continuation of his excellent hitting, putting up a 140 wRC+, a .366 wOBA, and a .308/.329/.526 slash line in those 20 games. Pages has also clubbed 4 HR’s in his tenure so far, all of which, traveling 375+ feet. He immediately took charge as the best hitter in the bottom of the order, clearing not only his OF counterparts Hernandez, Taylor, and Outman, but the other bottom of the order residents in Miguel Rojas, Gavin Lux, and Austin Barnes too.
Not only are his outcomes immediately demonstrating his ability as a pure hitter, but the quality of contact he is getting is impressive as well. When it comes to his Expected Weighted On-Base Average, he is in the top 27% of hitters in MLB, meaning he is not relying on luck when getting on base. He is even higher on leaderboards when it comes to his Expected Batting Average and Expected Slugging Percentage, placing in the top 14% of hitters in the league. He has already racked up 26 Hard Hits (Batted balls with an Exit Velocity of 95 mph or higher) and ranks 3rd in the entire league in Sweet Spot% with a whopping 50%. When a ball is hit off of the “Sweet Spot” of the bat, it means that it was not only hit at 95+ mph, but also carries an ideal launch angle that has a higher probability of leading to homeruns and extra base hits. These two numbers further point to him absolutely tearing the cover off the baseball right now, and not relying on results based off of luck.
Did I mention he can play defense too? Through his time in the minor leagues, Pages’s arm was seen as a plus to elite tool of his, with his glove not being too shabby either, but not seen as the level as his arm. Through his first 20 games, he’s not only proven that his arm talent could translate perfectly in games at the MLB level, but that he can provide nearly gold-glove level defense at BOTH RF and CF, the two more difficult OF positions. Pages was projected more as a RF, but given Outman struggled mightily as an everyday player, he was forced to step in and regularly split time between CF and RF.
He’s done more than just man the positions, already putting up 2 OAA (Outs Above Average), a stat that measures a player’s range, accounting for each individual fielding play a player is involved in and how difficult they are to make. His 2 OOA is good for being in the top 12% of MLB. Pages has also accumulated a Fielding Run Value of 2 according to Statcast, which factors all individual defensive metrics recorded by Statcast to demonstrate total defensive performance by the player (read more HERE). His mark ranks in the top 13% of all position players. His arm, which was really never a question, continues to save runs and extra bases at the major league level, clocks in at an average of 89.7 mph, good for the top 18% of all fielders. One more valuable tool of his aiding his ability to flash the leather this season, is his speed. His speed has helped erase any questions of his ability as a CF, as he clocks in at an average sprint speed of 28.4 ft/s, which places in the top 17% of MLB. He is proving to be valuable in every possible way on the diamond, and his impact is surely being felt by the Dodgers, and seen by the entire league.
Where does he rank in terms of NL rookies, you might ask (probably because I kept hinting at it)? His 0.8 fWAR is already tied for 5th among NL rookies, and what’s most impressive about his placement so far is the other rookies had a 19-game head start on Pages. Pages was not really considered a preseason candidate for the award due to him not getting the immediate call-up, which is understandable because there were many viable rookies in the NL who started the season on their respective major league team’s roster. To start 19 games behind everyone else, and to then muscle his way into the top 5 within 3 weeks, speaks not only to the value he brings to the Dodgers, but how special of a player he truly is. That 6.0/162 pace that he is currently on trails only Chicago Cubs pitcher Shota Imanaga by 0.8.
Andy Pages has also wasted no time outshining many NL rookie hitters as well, ranking in the upper-echelon of hitting ranks so far. He already ranks 3rd in both wRC+ and wOBA with his 140 and .366 marks successfully. His 4 HR’s have him tied for 2nd among NL rookies and trail only Michael Busch’s 7. Andy Pages though, reigns supreme when it comes to Batting Average and Slugging Percentage, leading with his aforementioned marks of .308 and .526 respectively. His .329 On-Base Percentage mark might slow him down, ranking a lowly FIFTH (LOL) among rookies in the senior circuit. And if you’re wondering where those contact quality numbers from above rank among NL rookies too, don’t worry, they’re near the top. His xwOBA of .347 is at the top, while his xSLG of .493 and his xBA of .282 rank in the top three, and his 26 Hard HIts rank 5th. Based off his competition and his current ranks, I don’t think it’s a stretch to call him the top NL rookie hitter going forward.
If I had to pick today, May 10th, 2024, I would say my NL Rookie of the Year is Shota Imanaga. But luckily for Dodger fans, I do not have a vote and voting does not begin until after the season, which still has about four and a half months to go. It will still be a tall task for him to surpass Imanaga, and even current rookie teammate Yoshinubo Yamamoto in NL Rookie of the Year running, but looking at where Pages is now compared to the beginning of the season, it does not feel unrealistic at all. To make up ground on 19 games behind everyone else and prove to already be probably the best rookie hitter in the league is attention grabbing itself. To top it all off, his defense is at an extremely high level in all aspects, further adding to his value. Defense likely won’t be a deciding factor in awards voting (sadly, and stupidly I might add) but it demonstrates his true impact as a complete player. The only two threats in my opinion to his chances at the award are both the aforementioned Yamamoto and Imanaga, and the race looks to really only be beginning.
Dodger fans, and baseball fans for that matter, might question if Pages’s performance is sustainable at this level, and I truly believe it is. Andy Pages has posted a wRC+ above 100 (league average) every single season (5) of his minor league career, and only ONE season below 120. His wOBA has also never dipped below .354 and his OBP never dipped below .336 in any minor league season. To top those consistent marks off, he crushed an impressive 94 HR’s in 416 career games across all levels in the minors. Many scouts have always raved about his bat throughout his time in the minor leagues. Fangraphs has his raw power and game power tools ranked as his two best tools (tied with fielding), while MLB Pipeline has his power tool ranked as his best by far, on their prospect reports. What we are seeing in real time is an indication of what many scouts thought he was going to do at the major league level. Some guys take time to adjust, and hey, some guys are just called up at the right time and are put in the best position to flourish.
One area that we have not seen a full translation of results from the mir leagues for Pages is in the walks department. He’s only drawn ONE whole walk in his time up with the Dodgers, but I think that’s more attributed to his aggressiveness at the plate (in a positive way) and not wanting to let good pitches go by, because he is certainly not letting pitchers sneak anything past him. His wRC+ and wOBA marks would be a lot lower if the lack of walks was a negative indication, and fortunately, he is just crushing the baseball and still producing at a high level at the plate. If anything, this low walk total shows signs of Pages being potentially even more dangerous at the plate if that percentage rises while he still crushes the baseball. Even in the minors, he drew 228 walks across all levels and held a 12.5% BB over 5 seasons, meaning, the walks will come. But, in the meantime, let’s continue to enjoy watching him crush the baseball because, like many of us saw through his time rising up the ranks, he’s damn good at it.
I’d be remiss if I didn’t close out by touching on the other Cuban rookie sensation from Havana the Dodgers called up 11 years ago, Yasiel Puig. Some Dodger fans drew comparison to the two immediately because of their hometown, but that was not the only similarity the two shared. Both players’ tool grades (hit, power, arm, speed, fielding, and overall) were almost identical in their scouting reports from MLB pipeline in the seasons in which they debuted! Both seen as above average hitters, with excellent arms, and plus gloves, but also from the same hometown? As a baseball fan, I found it pretty cool going back and reading Puig’s tool grades. Even more fans would make the comparison due to Pages’s hot start. Both men immediately drew the spotlight on the Dodgers when they were called up, and both men were catalysts in a slumping offense. In 2013, the Dodgers were in desperate need of any offense when Puig was called up and in 2024, the Dodgers need a resemblance of life in the bottom of the order.
While Andy Pages is having himself a great start he should be proud of, Puig’s was otherworldly. In his first 20 games Yasiel Puig recorded a 250 wRC+, a .527 wOBA, and a whopping fWAR of 1.5, which of course were all tops in MLB in that span. He also led MLB in AVG. with a mark of .442 and his .476 OBP and .753 SLG were good for top-3 in MLB in that span as well. Puig had gotten called up just a month and a week before the All-Star game and narrowly missed making the team, that is how great he was playing. While the numbers at the start of Puig’s tenure were just cartoonish, the end of season numbers such as an fWAR of 3.9 and 19 HR’s, and the All-Star appearance that avoided Puig, could very well be attainable for Andy Pages. Among all, numbers aside, one cannot deny the sizable impact that Pages is having on this team, one that is surely similar to Puig’s when he first arrived, and one that cannot be fully quantified with numbers. The 2024 Dodgers have played much better baseball since the arrival of Pages, and I don’t see anything else he has to do to prove he’s earned his spot on this club for the rest of the season. Let’s hope Havana Cuba is here to stay.
*All stats used were pulled from Fangraphs, Baseball Savant, and Baseball Reference