04/12/24
Maybe you haven’t heard, but the Los Angeles Dodgers have arguably the best top-3 of any lineup in baseball. I am sure if you asked fans of other teams if they would take LA’s top-3 over their favorite teams top-3, chances are at least 90% of fan bases would objectively choose the Dodgers. While Mookie Betts, Shohei Ohtani, and Freddie Freeman deservedly get most of the shine when it comes to talking about the Dodger offense, they are not the only big hitters. In fact, I think it is fair to start referring to the heavy hitters of the lineup as the “Big 4,” and put a spotlight on one of the best catchers in baseball:, Will Smith. While Will Smith’s contributions to the Dodgers since his call up in 2019 deserve to be highlighted in its own post down the line, I want to focus on his role as a capable offensive threat in this season’s lineup.
When the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani in December, many Dodger and baseball fans started constructing the lineup themselves, and the consensus opinion was Betts-Othani-Freeman, or some combination of those 3 at the top. Though, it almost felt like many, including baseball media, made it seem like it did not matter who the 4th hitter would be. Yes, a lot of people leaned Will Smith in that spot, albeit not unanimously, but nonetheless, it still felt like he was getting a bit shorted on his respect.
Now, are Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman better hitters than Will Smith? Yes, I don’t think anyone would question that. However, when you look at other teams’ top-4 hitters, the inclusion of Smith propels the Dodgers top-4 to be the overwhelming favorite among all other teams. Additionally, Smith offers such a premium being the offensive threat he is as a catcher, a position where offense is more difficult to come by (he’s been a solid defender too). Let’s not forget the Dodgers also locked him up this off-season to a team-friendly $14M AAV (Average Annual Value) over the next 10 seasons. So Smith, like Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman, will presumably be a Dodger for the rest of his career.
This season, Will Smith is already off to a hot start. His 0.8 fWAR (Wins Above Replacement – estimation of how many wins a player is worth relative to a replacement level player) leads all catchers through the first 13 games of the season, a leaderboard he has generally hovered close to or atop of. His 0.8 is actually tied for 9th in the league among all position players, as well. While fWAR encompasses all aspects of a player’s game, his offense seems to be doing the heavy lifting early in the season.
For starters, Smith is currently top-2 among all catchers in wOBA (Weighted on Base Average – better counterpart to OBP in my opinion) at .433, which puts him in the top tenth of all position players in MLB. Over the last couple seasons, he ranks in the same spot, putting up a wOBA of .347, which is considered above average relative to all hitters, not just catchers. The only catcher above Smith in that category was Adley Rutschman, who has the reputation of being a superstar himself. And last season, Smith was 1 of only 3 qualified catchers to reach the .340 mark or better, where Cal Raleigh in 4th place, lagged behind at .326.
Another premier offensive stat that speaks to Will Smith’s production is wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created + – measures a player’s total offensive contribution, where 100 is league average), where Smith has comfortably ranked in the top-3 range over the last couple seasons, and coincidentally, this season as well. He is already off to a hot start with a wRC+ of 172 (72% better than a league average) over the first two weeks of this season, topping Shohei Ohtani (171) and Freddie Freeman’s (154) current marks, and only trailing Mookie Betts (254) on the Dodgers. In addition, he found himself top-3 on his team as well, each of the last two seasons with marks of 119 in 2023 and 128 (Tied with Trea Turner) in 2022.
His current marks in both of those departments may not be truly sustainable for an entire season, but they do a good job of showing his ability to keep pace out of the gate with the big dogs atop this potent Dodger lineup. His current numbers also show his consistency in not only being a good hitter, but keeping up at the top of leaderboards. What stands out most is that his production speaks more to him being a well above average hitter in general, not just among catchers. I’d bet many teams would line up to swap their 4th best hitter for Will Smith, which highlights just how valuable he is to this Dodgers lineup.
Another aspect of Smith’s game that can go unnoticed is his great eye at the plate, which allows him to be one of the more disciplined hitters in baseball. You will not see Will Smith rack up many swings and misses at the plate, forcing pitchers to challenge him in the zone. This season, he already ranks in the top 12% of hitters in Whiff% (Percent of swings and misses) with an outstanding rate of 16.2%. And in each of the last two seasons, he has ranked comfortably in the top 18% of hitters in the same category, showing off his eye and discipline. This is a key metric for a guy in a role like Smith’s where he can expect many plate appearances with runners on base, given the 3 great hitters in front of him.
Not only is he keeping from swinging and missing, he is also in the upper-echelon of hitters when it comes to avoiding strikeouts. Last season, he was in the top 14% of hitters in K%, and second on the Dodgers only behind Mookie Betts. The year before that, he was still in the top 21% of hitters, and second among catchers, only behind Alejandro Kirk. He’s off to another great start this season, currently placing in the top 20% of hitters in MLB, and second on his team behind only – you guessed it – Mookie Betts. Smith’s combination of not swinging and missing and avoiding the strikeout gives you a good feeling about him putting balls in play in big spots.
Excelling in metrics such as the two above bode well for getting free bases by helping Smith work walks as well. This season, he hasn’t drawn many, but his excellent production with the bat has supplemented enough for him to not need to rely on them just yet. In 2023, Smith showed off his great eye by ranking in the top 17% of hitters in BB%, with a rate of 11.4%, which was good for second among all qualified catchers in the bigs. His 11.4% is a sizable step up from his mark in 2022, which was still a respectable 9.7% (Top third of all hitters in MLB), and a better representation of what to expect from Smith, given that his mark in 2021 was 11.6%.
Will Smith is one of the better, well-rounded hitters in the sport and the Dodgers are lucky to have a hitter like him as their fourth best. Some of his metrics topple those of the Big 3 in the lineup before him, although we’ve established that they are properly ranked ahead of him. His offense is a luxury at the catcher position, and his abilities to stay disciplined at the plate and produce consistently at a high level with the bat help make the argument for him to be ranked closer to the upper, than mid tier of hitters in the league. With that type of ranking, it becomes more evident that there are four fear-inducing hitters in this potent Dodger lineup, not just three. It’ll be exciting to see Smith play a key role along Betts, Ohtani, and Freeman over the course of this season and see him come up big in crucial spots with those guys on base. Let’s see if this Big 4 can turn into their own version of the Core 4.
*All stats were used from Fangraphs and Baseball Savant.